decision support system
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FSL-BDP: Federated Survival Learning with Bayesian Differential Privacy for Credit Risk Modeling
Amed, Sultan, Sen, Tanmay, Banerjee, Sayantan
Credit risk models are a critical decision-support tool for financial institutions, yet tightening data-protection rules (e.g., GDPR, CCPA) increasingly prohibit cross-border sharing of borrower data, even as these models benefit from cross-institution learning. Traditional default prediction suffers from two limitations: binary classification ignores default timing, treating early defaulters (high loss) equivalently to late defaulters (low loss), and centralized training violates emerging regulatory constraints. We propose a Federated Survival Learning framework with Bayesian Differential Privacy (FSL-BDP) that models time-to-default trajectories without centralizing sensitive data. The framework provides Bayesian (data-dependent) differential privacy (DP) guarantees while enabling institutions to jointly learn risk dynamics. Experiments on three real-world credit datasets (LendingClub, SBA, Bondora) show that federation fundamentally alters the relative effectiveness of privacy mechanisms. While classical DP performs better than Bayesian DP in centralized settings, the latter benefits substantially more from federation (+7.0\% vs +1.4\%), achieving near parity of non-private performance and outperforming classical DP in the majority of participating clients. This ranking reversal yields a key decision-support insight: privacy mechanism selection should be evaluated in the target deployment architecture, rather than centralized benchmarks. These findings provide actionable guidance for practitioners designing privacy-preserving decision support systems in regulated, multi-institutional environments.
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Controlling Counterfactual Harm in Decision Support Systems Based on Prediction Sets
Decision support systems based on prediction sets help humans solve multiclass classification tasks by narrowing down the set of potential label values to a subset of them, namely a prediction set, and asking them to always predict label values from the prediction sets. While this type of systems have been proven to be effective at improving the average accuracy of the predictions made by humans, by restricting human agency, they may cause harm---a human who has succeeded at predicting the ground-truth label of an instance on their own may have failed had they used these systems. In this paper, our goal is to control how frequently a decision support system based on prediction sets may cause harm, by design. To this end, we start by characterizing the above notion of harm using the theoretical framework of structural causal models. Then, we show that, under a natural, albeit unverifiable, monotonicity assumption, we can estimate how frequently a system may cause harm using only predictions made by humans on their own. Further, we also show that, under a weaker monotonicity assumption, which can be verified experimentally, we can bound how frequently a system may cause harm again using only predictions made by humans on their own. Building upon these assumptions, we introduce a computational framework to design decision support systems based on prediction sets that are guaranteed to cause harm less frequently than a user-specified value using conformal risk control. We validate our framework using real human predictions from two different human subject studies and show that, in decision support systems based on prediction sets, there is a trade-off between accuracy and counterfactual harm.
Achieving Trustworthy Real-Time Decision Support Systems with Low-Latency Interpretable AI Models
Deng, Zechun, Liu, Ziwei, Bi, Ziqian, Song, Junhao, Liang, Chia Xin, Yeong, Joe, Song, Xinyuan, Hao, Junfeng
This paper investigates real-time decision support systems that leverage low-latency AI models, bringing together recent progress in holistic AI-driven decision tools, integration with Edge-IoT technologies, and approaches for effective human-AI teamwork. It looks into how large language models can assist decision-making, especially when resources are limited. The research also examines the effects of technical developments such as DeLLMa, methods for compressing models, and improvements for analytics on edge devices, while also addressing issues like limited resources and the need for adaptable frameworks. Through a detailed review, the paper offers practical perspectives on development strategies and areas of application, adding to the field by pointing out opportunities for more efficient and flexible AI-supported systems. The conclusions set the stage for future breakthroughs in this fast-changing area, highlighting how AI can reshape real-time decision support.
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MCP-AI: Protocol-Driven Intelligence Framework for Autonomous Reasoning in Healthcare
ElSayed, Zag, Erickson, Craig, Pedapati, Ernest
Healthcare AI systems have historically faced challenges in merging contextual reasoning, long-term state management, and human-verifiable workflows into a cohesive framework. This paper introduces a completely innovative architecture and concept: combining the Model Context Protocol (MCP) with a specific clinical application, known as MCP-AI. This integration allows intelligent agents to reason over extended periods, collaborate securely, and adhere to authentic clinical logic, representing a significant shift away from traditional Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSS) and prompt-based Large Language Models (LLMs). As healthcare systems become more complex, the need for autonomous, context-aware clinical reasoning frameworks has become urgent. We present MCP-AI, a novel architecture for explainable medical decision-making built upon the Model Context Protocol (MCP) a modular, executable specification for orchestrating generative and descriptive AI agents in real-time workflows. Each MCP file captures clinical objectives, patient context, reasoning state, and task logic, forming a reusable and auditable memory object. Unlike conventional CDSS or stateless prompt-based AI systems, MCP-AI supports adaptive, longitudinal, and collaborative reasoning across care settings. MCP-AI is validated through two use cases: (1) diagnostic modeling of Fragile X Syndrome with comorbid depression, and (2) remote coordination for Type 2 Diabetes and hypertension. In either scenario, the protocol facilitates physician-in-the-loop validation, streamlines clinical processes, and guarantees secure transitions of AI responsibilities between healthcare providers. The system connects with HL7/FHIR interfaces and adheres to regulatory standards, such as HIPAA and FDA SaMD guidelines. MCP-AI provides a scalable basis for interpretable, composable, and safety-oriented AI within upcoming clinical environments.
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Foundations of Quantum Granular Computing with Effect-Based Granules, Algebraic Properties and Reference Architectures
This paper develops the foundations of Quantum Granular Computing (QGC), extending classical granular computing including fuzzy, rough, and shadowed granules to the quantum regime. Quantum granules are modeled as effects on a finite dimensional Hilbert space, so granular memberships are given by Born probabilities. This operator theoretic viewpoint provides a common language for sharp (projective) and soft (nonprojective) granules and embeds granulation directly into the standard formalism of quantum information theory. We establish foundational results for effect based quantum granules, including normalization and monotonicity properties, the emergence of Boolean islands from commuting families, granular refinement under Luders updates, and the evolution of granules under quantum channels via the adjoint channel in the Heisenberg picture. We connect QGC with quantum detection and estimation theory by interpreting the effect operators realizing Helstrom minimum error measurement for binary state discrimination as Helstrom type decision granules, i.e., soft quantum counterparts of Bayes optimal decision regions. Building on these results, we introduce Quantum Granular Decision Systems (QGDS) with three reference architectures that specify how quantum granules can be defined, learned, and integrated with classical components while remaining compatible with near term quantum hardware. Case studies on qubit granulation, two qubit parity effects, and Helstrom style soft decisions illustrate how QGC reproduces fuzzy like graded memberships and smooth decision boundaries while exploiting noncommutativity, contextuality, and entanglement. The framework thus provides a unified and mathematically grounded basis for operator valued granules in quantum information processing, granular reasoning, and intelligent systems.
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